From: "Clennonator" <clennon@teleport.com>
Date: Sun, 1 Mar 1998 11:16:07 -0800
Subject: Re: Consensus Game #1, Turn #8
Message-id: <199803011917.LAA15191@mail1.teleport.com>
I see several candidate plays for this position:
EX 2n (31) -ALRTU AX a14 (29) -ELRTU RELAX 6j (28) -RTU UVEAL 1a (27) -RTX AVERT 1a (27) -LUX TUX c5 (21) -AELRLet's start by getting rid of the bottom three. It would be unwise to play off both our A and our case U, without strong compensation, so UVEAL is out. AVERT leaves LUX on our rack, and little hope for a bingo in the near future, so I would avoid AVERT. TUX leaves the beautiful AELR, but at the cost of several points, and we are behind after all.
Regarding RELAX, I've got to believe that ALRTU and ELRTU are better leaves than RTU. That, combined with the extra point(s) scored for AX/EX, clearly makes RELAX third banana, at best.
Now, how to choose between AX and EX? That 2 extra points for EX is tough to pass up. However, according to my crude calculations, there is about a 1 in 3 chance that our opponent just drew an S, if he didn't already have one. On the other hand, our chances of drawing an S after playing off just 2 tiles are less than 1 in 11. Bad odds. We should probably sac the 2 points and block that S hook at 15b. Therefor...
I vote for 14a AX.
Chris (1957)