From: dstock@BIX.com
Date: Thu, 08 Jan 1998 10:05:05 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Why I voted for EDIFY
Message-id: <9801081005.memo.37631@BIX.com>

Well, it takes a fool like me to debate the world champion in public despite my lowly 176x rating. (John has already recorded my vote from private correspondence, but since everyone seems to be agreeing with the champ, I figured it was time to speak up.)

I prefer EDIFY to HYOID. Both score the same, so the issues are leave and defense.

The leave issue is interesting. We all prefer E to O and H to F. Which is more important? Perhaps the E is more important, but not by all that much of a margin. As important as E's are for making bingos, F's are almost as bad at killing them. In particular, LeXpert tells me there are 1187 seven-letter bingos containing with OH, and 1293 seven-letter bingos containing EF. A small margin in favor of EF and hence HYOID -- perhaps a point or two.

Defensively, EDIFY takes no hooks. HYOID takes an S. If the opponent has a bingo ending in S, he will likely score more if we play EDIFY. Perhaps a half point in favor of EDIFY. ("But our opponent might not know HYOIDS", I hear you say. Forget it. Rule number 1: know your opponent. Our opponent, John Chew plus Maven, knows the dictionary pretty well!)

More importantly, however, HYOID slots the I around two double-letter scores. This is generally a several (four?) point deduction in sim, and I see no reason for it to be different here. You might regret HYOID if opponent comes back with a quick XI for 37 cheap points. As for setting up a place for the F, it is much more likely that our opponent will use the spot. Opponents only choices are to exchange (not too likely), hook an S (about which we would probably not be happy), play parallel (which ruins the F spot unless the opponent wastes the DLS with ID, IN, or IT), or play through a letter (which is what we'd hope for, but it is not all that common at this stage). Perhaps a point back to HYOID.

Bingos that begin or end with an E in the center square are slightly more common than those that begin or end with D. This is countered by the fact that double-doubles through the H are more likely than double-doubles through the Y. However, playing an open E does give the opponent a notably better chance for a cheap bingo through it. Perhaps another point to HYOID.

What about EDIFYING? Is it a major risk? Yes, it scores well. However, the probability of opponent hold XI (which doesn't score quite as well) is over three times the probability of holding ING. So this can only cost us a fraction of what slotting the I does (since that also sets up a lot of letters other than the X); perhaps a half point.

Here is an analysis of the probability for the mathematically inclined.

   P(ING) = 8/93 * 6/92 * 3/91 * C(7,3) = (8*6*3*35)/(93*92*91)
   P(XI) = 1/93 * 8/92 * C(7,2) = (1*8*21)/(93*92)
   P(ING) / P(XI) = (8*6*3*35*93*92)/(93*92*91*1*8*21) = 30/91

My conclusion: it's very close. But I'd give it to EDIFY by about a point, because all of the arguments in favor of HYOID are not quite enough to make up for slotting the I.

Dan "I coulda beena contenda if i could stummick studyin" Stock