From: rgb5@cornell.edu
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 1998 09:41:58 -0500 (EST)
Subject: WEND vs WEND
Message-id: <Pine.SOL.3.91.980130092833.1952A-100000@travelers.mail.cornell.edu>

Regarding the argument that "if one hot spot exists and you can't use it, open another", I should point out that this should apply to hot spots that we actually have a good chance of using. To use the h11-15 line effectively, we would have to draw a vowel, one of the 7 [CKMPWY] left in the bag, and usually at least one more tile to actually make a 5lw. The chances of drawing one or more vowel plus one of [CKMPWY] are only 20%. The chances of using the h column are probably less than 2%. Regarding the "new" bingo line on row 12 for words starting A or O, there are only 50 such 7lw possible, so that isn't likely to do us much good either. A bingo in column j or on row 5 will score more than 65 points. If we get something from 15d, that will score more than 80.

I should also comment on the chances of opponent having an S. If we assume that an S could have been drawn as any of the 19 tiles opp. has seen, (meaning that opponent is greedily hoarding an S), then the odds are 42%. If, however, we assume that opponent did not have an S when playing CHA-YO-TE (should have had a bingo holding ACEHST(X) where "X" is any tile that would yield a bingo), then there have only been 9 chances to draw an S then the chances drop to 30%.

Rich