From: rgb5@cornell.edu
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 1998 11:00:19 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Consensus Game #1, Move #5
Message-id: <Pine.SOL.3.91.980203095110.18163A@travelers.mail.cornell.edu>

I would like to remind people that the purpose of a consensus game is to discuss the possible moves before making cast-in-stone decisions about what to vote for. I think a lot of people are voting for SULFONiC, COUSINLy and CUlLIONS without even considering CoCOUNSEL. I won't claim to have found CoCOUNSEL on my own (thanks Les!), but I am convinced it is the best move and I think everyone who has already cast a vote for another move should reconsider.

Both SULFONiC and COUSINLy place a U in the h column creating a hot spot that will be relatively easy to use. CUlLIONS is only slightly better. In addition, all of these plays leave opponent 2 or 3 tiles to play through in comlumns l-n. All of these new openings combined with the volatile S hooks on the bottom half of the board create a very dynamic board. Although I like dynamic boards, I don't like to create big openings willy-nilly, particularly with a 40-50 point lead.

After CoCOUNSEL, opponent has fairly limited non-bingo scoring possibilities without an S. (I assert without justification that opponent's bingo chances aren't significantly different after any of our possible bingos.) With an S, opponent will probably even the score. If opponent has no S, we will almost certainly hold a small lead after opponent's play, AND we will be one step ahead in the race for esses.

After any of the other bingos, opponent is likely to use the h1 tws and approximately tie the game, possibly retaining an S. If opponent doesn't have an S, we would be giving away a lot by not playing CoCOUNSEL.

Here's my projected outcome matrix:

We play:         CoCOUNSEL              CUlLIONS, SULFONiC or COUSINLy
                 (74)                   (72)      (74)        (72)
Opponent:

Has S            Tie game, non-         Opp uses h1 tws, keeps S,
                 volatile board         significant edge for opponent.

No S             We keep small          Approximately tied game if
                 lead, one step         opponent can use h1 tws.  We
                 ahead in race          do have slight edge in race
                 for esses.             for esses.

Honestly, I think CoCOUNSEL is a no brainer. The only "argument" I have seen against it is, "don't like the new -S hook at l5". There are much juicier -S hooks on this board already.

Finally, I suppose if we do make the (correct) choice to play COCOUNSEL, we should decide which O to use the blank for. My feeling is that it doesn't really matter, but I naturally tend towards using the blank for the first O, simply because it is adjacent to a dws and we have a lead. Putting the blank at 5d probably reduces the average future scoring on this board by 1 point and that's what we want if we have a lead. However, it really doesn't matter to me.

Rich