From: Rich Baker <rgb5@cornell.edu>
Date: Sun, 08 Feb 1998 15:41:06 -0500
Subject: Re: Consensus Game #1, Turn 6
Message-id: <3.0.2.32.19980208154106.007d3e70@postoffice.mail.cornell.edu>

At 08:48 AM 2/8/98 -1000, Ken Smith wrote:

I vote for out at k3 scoring 12 points. I like the leave ainrt which I believe gives us the best chance to bingo in my opinion. Drawing fewer tiles there is less chance to mess up our rack.

Ken,

Drawing fewer tiles also gives us less chance to draw one of the esses or the X. Keeping an I could be a bad idea with 6 of them still unseen. In general, I would be willing to take a small point sacrifice to keep a more bingo-prone leave, but this board isn't particularly bingo friendly (and OUT would actually decrease the likelihood of a bingo) and esses may be the deciding factor in the game. There are only 8 "bad" tiles left [BKMPQVVW]. With a 4 tile draw (as I suggest with h1 UNlIT), we have a 56% chance of drawing one of those 8 tiles vs. 33% chance with a 2 tile draw. To "cripple" our rack by drawing 2 of those 8 tiles, we have a 12.5% chance with a 4 tile draw.

I hate this type of rack... no bingo and no scoring tiles. Ugh.

Rich